The five things you need to know about the housing market this week.
1. The peak still matters, but not to everybody
In recent years, it’s become very common to look at each area’s change in property values from the peak, with markets such as Auckland and Wellington ranking towards the bottom of these lists. And clearly, for anybody who purchased a property at or close to those previous peaks in markets that have subsequently dropped significantly, it’s going to be a major consideration whether they’re currently sitting on paper losses or perhaps have even already had to sell for less than what they paid.
That said, over the final six months of 2021 and the first six months of 2022, there were around 83,000 property transactions across the country, equivalent to a touch less than 5% of our housing stock. In other words, although values have generally fallen since 2021-22, most people weren’t actually buyers at the peak.
Start your property search
Indeed, it’s worth remembering that over longer horizons of say 10 years, even some areas that have been weak in the past few years have still seen substantial growth more generally – e.g. Whanganui down by 15% from peak but up by 124% since 2016, and Gisborne currently 19% below peak but 106% higher than 2016. On the other hand, Christchurch is only 1% below peak, whereas its 10-year rise has been more measured at 58%.
In other words, it’s not time to forget about the changes from peak altogether, but it is worth keeping a wider perspective.
2. Sales activity continues to slide lower
Bringing it all back to the present day, the latest figures show that property sales activity remains subdued, with volumes coming in 14% lower for September than the same month last year – the ninth fall in a row and the largest decline seen so far in this latest downward phase. The annual rolling total isn’t terrible (87,920), but it has fallen from a December 2025 peak of 92,070 and is at its lowest since May 2025. In other words, both buyers and sellers remain fairly cautious, given the uncertain economic backdrop and a drift to higher mortgage rates.
Cotality chief economist Kelvin Davidson: "Although values have generally fallen since 2021-22, most people weren’t actually buyers at the peak." Photo / Peter Meecham
3. Net migration is still edging higher
Meanwhile, the total for net migration into NZ for the 12 months to August was 20,502, the highest figure since December 2024 (23,747), albeit still below the long-term average of around 30,000. The recent (modest) growth has been driven by a slight drop in departures, both NZ citizens and non-citizens, as well as growth in new arrivals of non-citizens. Of course, these figures are still pretty subdued and not yet driving any major pressure on housing demand.
4. Mixed messages on the economy
Put simply, the economy remains patchy. On one hand, last week’s manufacturing PMI for September was impressive again, with activity in the sector now having grown for 15 months in a row. But electronic card spending dropped for the second month in a row in September, as consumers not only have to spend more on fuel, but are actually reducing their expenditure overall – meaning non-fuel items are really being squeezed.
5. All eyes on the CPI
The headline data release this week will be the Consumers Price Index for Q3 from Stats NZ on Thursday. As at the September Monetary Policy Statement, the RBNZ anticipated CPI inflation dropping from 4.1% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3, with non-tradable/domestic elements perhaps edging higher (3.4% to 3.6%) but tradable/imported slowing sharply from 4.9% to 4.2%. That tradable forecast would have to have some doubt around it now, and an actual CPI result at 4% or higher would tend to raise (or reinforce) the chances of another OCR lift next week.
- Kelvin Davidson is chief economist at property insights firm Cotality
