First-home buyers are turning away from Auckland and heading to more affordable housing markets in Canterbury, Wellington and Waikato, new research shows.
Analysis of the New Zealand housing market by Ray White economist Atom Go Tian identified the neighbourhoods where Kiwis aged under 35 are getting a foot on the property ladder in significant numbers.
The research pinpoints the parts of New Zealand where younger buyers are most likely to get on the property ladder sooner. Many of these markets also have solid growth prospects, giving homeowners the chance to build long-term wealth.
Go Tian said he wanted to use the research to show where the house-buying opportunities lie for younger Kiwis, although he didn't shy away from the fact that entering the market early in life was challenging.
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"We looked at neighbourhoods where the population is around 2000 to 4000. These are called SA2s, and we used them as a proxy for suburbs to work out the median age of homeowners there, using the 2023 Census data," he said.
"New Zealand has 2356 SA2s, and only 22.5% are mostly young, with a median age under 35. This share has shrunk from the 27.8% recorded at the 2018 Census.
"From this pool, we kept suburbs where at least 66% of residents own their home. This single metric is important because it separates suburbs where people are putting down roots from young suburbs where investors and renting are more common.
"Finally, we required at least 30 sales in the 12 months to both September 2016 and September 2026, so we could measure price growth over the last decade, and ensure that measurement rested on real sales.
"That left 30 suburbs across seven regions where young communities have settled."
Go Tian said the data indicated young homeowners were turning their backs on Auckland and more central city suburbs - largely due to price - and were settling in more affordable areas on the city fringes or in the regions.
Ray White economist Atom Go Tian: "Canterbury has the most suburbs on the list. Nine of the 30 sit in and around Christchurch." Photo / Supplied
“It seems there are really two areas where young buyers are concentrating or settling down. Firstly, newer estate suburbs - i.e. suburbs that have been built in the last 10 or 20 years - and secondly, your affordable suburbs on the fringes of major metros.”
Half of the suburbs with the youngest homeowners had a median sales price of less than $700,000 (below the nationwide median sales price of $770,000).
"Canterbury has the most suburbs on the list. Nine of the 30 sit in and around Christchurch. Rolleston leads, with Rolleston South East the youngest suburb at 31.4 and Rolleston North Central having the highest ownership, at 81%. Faringdon, Lincoln West and Halswell West are new estates, while the other four, Branston, Mairehau South, Malvern and Hoon Hay East, are established Christchurch suburbs," Go Tian said.
"Wellington and Waikato follow with five each. Four of Wellington's are in Wainuiomata, in Lower Hutt, where medians run from $520,000 to $595,000. All four more than doubled over the decade, between 101 and 126 per cent. The fifth, Postgate, is in Porirua."
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Only three Auckland suburbs made the list: Ormiston South, where the median house price was $1.53m; Mission Heights South, where the median price was $1.29m; and Swanson, the most affordable of the three, with a median price of $890,000.
“There are other suburbs in Auckland that skew younger, but these are places where younger people are typically renting instead of owning.”
Canterbury agents had noticed the influx of younger buyers and told OneRoof that affordable, newish-build homes in Rolleston ranged in price from $674,000 to $767,000, noting that they were popular with people who had grown up in the area or worked in the Selwyn District.
Ray White Town and Lifestyle business owner Brendan Shefford said a lot of those who grew up in Rolleston in the last two decades were now buying houses there. It was also attractive to Aucklanders and Indian migrants wanting good value for money.
His agents have a three-bedroom home for sale for over $725,000 at 24 Lomu Way. The property was built in 2022 and boasts a contemporary kitchen with stone benchtops and a keyless entry and alarm system.
Rolleston is attractive to younger buyers because of the newer stock and affordability. A near-new three-bedroom home at 24 Lomu Way is inviting offers over $725,000. Photo / Supplied
Harcourts Holmwood agent Zani Polson told OneRoof that Rolleston had grown in popularity after the Christchurch earthquakes. People recognised they could buy a new home there for the same price as older homes in Christchurch. Mairehau and Hoon Hay (which also feature on Ray White's list) were popular with locals who wanted affordable but relatively central locations, she said.
Polson said there was a good mix of people moving to Christchurch, which she believed was much more affordable compared to other parts of the country.
“Christchurch is the place to be. You often talk to people coming here from out of town, and they are like, 'There are always things on and things to do.' That’s a good thing.”
Wainuiomata in Wellington’s Lower Hutt is also on the Ray White list.
Ray White Kemeys Brothers director Chip McCabe said young buyers were flocking to the suburb because their money went further, making it one of the region's most accessible entry points to homeownership, with median house prices there ranging from $520,000 to $595,000.
“Buyers are finding that instead of a two-bedroom house with no car park they can actually get themselves a three-bedroom home,” he said, noting that a three-bedroom home on Newburn Grove just sold for $530,000.
Wainuiomata is seen as affordable for Wellington. This three-bedroom home on Newburn Grove in the suburb was snapped up for $530,000. Photo / Supplied
McCabe said those with a slightly bigger budget of over $600,000 could pick up a renovated home. “I think Wainuiomata appeals to younger buyers because it offers a combination of affordability, space and lifestyle. That’s increasingly difficult to find elsewhere in the Wellington region.”
Younger buyers are also settling around in certain pockets of the Waikato. Nawton was the only Hamilton suburb to make the list and had a median house price of $682,000. Younger buyers also have a strong foothold in Tuakau, in north Waikato (median house price of $698,000), Kihikihi, near Te Awamutu ($630,000), and Strathmore and Moananui in Tokoroa, which were the cheapest on the list, with median house prices of $341,000 and $389,000 respectively.
The third most affordable suburb for younger buyers overall is Castlecliff, in Whanganui, where the median house price rose from $90,000 to $390,000 in the last 10 years – the biggest price jump on the list.
Harcourts Auckland agent Gabriel Elkhishin said the figures confirmed how expensive the city was for young first-home buyers. “I think it’s so hard to get on the property ladder. Getting the first house is so difficult in Auckland,” he said.
Elkhishin said the reason Ormiston South and Mission Heights South were on the list was that they were close to sought-after schools.
Ormiston South was also a “baby suburb”, he said, so homes were newer and usually had a home plus a self-contained unit that suited multigenerational families or provided an extra income opportunity.
Ray White agent Alyshia Marshall said Swanson was a growing suburb that had flown under the radar for some time and was now attracting younger buyers in search of better value for money and a different lifestyle.
“We're seeing buyers ranging from those in their early twenties purchasing their first home through to young couples and families looking for more space to grow.”
Marshall said there was a mix of properties on offer from the new builds and new developments, including the established Fletcher Living development, established homes with generous sections, semi-rural properties and larger lifestyle blocks.
“What makes Swanson particularly attractive is its position on the suburban fringe. Buyers can enjoy a semi-rural atmosphere, larger sections and greater privacy while still being close to everyday amenities, transport links and Auckland's beautiful West Coast beaches.”
Recent sales included a large three-bedroom, two-bathroom home on Scenic Drive North that sold for $725,000, a four-bedroom, two-bathroom house on Patsy O’hara Place for $930,000 and a three-bedroom, two-bathroom home on Awhiorangi Promenade for $1.14m.
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