1. More progress is needed on gender property ownership differences
Cotality’s annual Women and Property Report was published last week, and it reveals some interesting and concerning patterns of property ownership across gender and age. Despite females rating property ownership as more important than males, only 33% of Gen Z female survey respondents own the property they live in, and 47% for Millennial females – the same male figures were 53% and 66%.
Unfortunately, we still have a gender pay gap in NZ (-5% on the latest figures), which no doubt contributes to lower property ownership rates for females. But there are some non-monetary factors too – 16% of female respondents said they haven’t bought a property yet because they "don’t know where or how to start" (6% for males).
Clearly, then, there is more to be done on female wages and possibly some education priorities too – after all, earlier access to asset ownership gives higher security and more options later. (Listen to Kelvin Davidson discuss the report on the New Zealand Herald's podcast The Front Page.)
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2. Mortgage lending pauses for breath in January
After the crazy spike in mortgage activity in December (driven by bank switching), activity in January fell sharply, not least because there’s always a seasonal fall in the first month of the year anyway. That said, January’s total of $6 billion on the Reserve Bank figures was still fairly solid compared to around $5b in January 2025.
Perhaps the most interesting breakdown of these figures, however, is the LVR split, showing that 15% of owner-occupier lending was done at low/<20% deposit (highest since August 2020) and 3% to investors at low<30% equity, the highest since at least 2016. Of course, that shouldn’t be too surprising, given that the LVR speed limits were lifted on December 1 last year. First-home buyers continue to take full advantage, with a record 57% of loans to this group in January being done at less than 20% equity.
Cotality chief economist Kelvin Davidson: "16% of female respondents said they haven’t bought a property yet because they 'don’t know where or how to start'." Photo / Peter Meecham
3. Keeping a close eye on inflation measures
Last week’s business confidence survey from ANZ showed a slight drop in sentiment, but the level remains high – nothing much to get concerned about there. Perhaps more focus at the moment is on the inflation components of the survey, with a relatively high number of firms saying that they plan to raise prices in the near term. Against that backdrop, it’ll be fascinating to see if the Reserve Bank’s forecast that inflation subsides does actually become reality. If not, the "lower for longer" expectation for the OCR and mortgage rates may come into question.
4. Early labour market upturn still breaking through?
The latest filled jobs figures (for January) from Stats NZ are due out this week. The Reserve Bank thinks that the unemployment rate has already peaked, and that employment growth will show through from now on, so the latest monthly figures will be a good progress update. A stronger labour market should bolster consumer confidence and support house sales and prices, too.
5. More construction is a win-win
On Tuesday, Stats NZ will publish dwelling consent figures for January. This indicator has definitely turned higher in recent months, and there may well be more evidence of the upturn in January’s data. More construction activity bodes well for the economy and, of course, would also have favourable effects on housing affordability.
6. Last but not least ... foreign buyers
Last year's amendment to the Overseas Investment Act will come into effect on Friday. The reforms mean holders of the Active Investor Plus visa - the so-called “golden visa” - will be able to buy or build a home worth $5m or more. Previously, foreign buyers have been excluded from New Zealand's residential property market (although not those from Australia or Singapore). The Government’s softening of the 2017 foreign buyers ban will allow overseas investors into the upper end of the housing market. Sales of $5m and above are a tiny part of the overall market - and tend to be concentrated in Auckland and Queenstown-Lakes. Will the new rules have an effect on prices? One to keep an eye on. (Read more about the foreign buyer changes here.)
- Kelvin Davidson is chief economist at property insights firm Cotality
