Christchurch’s commercial property market is uniquely positioned for sustained growth, according to agency and valuation experts from Colliers.
At the recent Property Council New Zealand Market Summit in Christchurch, Colliers, in a joint presentation with Westpac and the Property Council, outlined a market characterised by constrained industrial supply, expanding office opportunities, and a strengthening CBD retail precinct – positioning Canterbury as increasingly attractive for both occupiers and investors.
Marius Ogg, Investment Sales Broker at Colliers Christchurch, says they are seeing a maturing market that's finally reaching pre-earthquake scale, but with fundamentally different dynamics.
“Christchurch is benefiting from strong population growth, increasing Australian visitor numbers, and major infrastructure investment that's reshaping the city's appeal. We have a city that is resilient, vibrant, and exciting,” Ogg says.
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“As 2026 marks 15 years since devastating earthquakes resulted in 86 per cent of CBD buildings being destroyed, the city that has emerged is increasingly unrecognisable from its pre-quake form.
"The constant refrain from visitors returning after extended absences is one of genuine amazement at the transformation.”
The industrial sector continues as the market's standout performer, and preferred asset class, with land scarcity creating sustained upward pressure on both capital and rental values.
Land values in western Christchurch now regularly achieve over $400 per square metre – representing substantial growth while remaining significantly below Auckland equivalents of $1,000 to $1,500 per square metre.
For smaller parcels under 5,000sq m western Christchurch commands up to $500 per square metre.
Occupancy remains tight, with vacancy between 2 to 5 per cent in most industrial nodes.
New-build warehouse space commands $140 to $160 per square metre, with office components achieving $270 to $320 per square metre.
The 12-month outlook points to continued upward pressure on land values, sustained high occupancy, and further rental growth as new supply struggles to keep pace with underlying demand.
Christchurch's office market is entering an exciting phase as significant new supply comes on line, reflecting developer and occupier confidence in the CBD's transformation into a modern, amenity-rich business district.
CBD vacancy has increased to 11.3 per cent, up from 8.3 per cent in 2024, though Ogg emphasises this remains well below the oversupply levels seen during the initial rebuild phase when vacancy peaked above 24 per cent in 2016.
“Many prospective tenants for new supply are largely not current CBD occupiers, which is particularly encouraging,” Ogg says.
“It suggests genuine growth rather than just relocation – evidence that the CBD is winning back businesses that might have permanently decentralised.”
Prime CBD face rents sit at $390 to $450 per square metre, while suburban markets maintain 9.5 per cent vacancy with core locations like Burnside (6.1 per cent) outperforming fringe areas.
Ogg says the emerging CBD offers something increasingly rare from a global perspective: a comprehensively planned, modern city centre with contemporary buildings, excellent amenity, walkability, and integrated green spaces.
The CBD retail precinct has achieved its lowest vacancy since the rebuild at 5.6 per cent, down from 15 per cent in 2019.
“Prime Cashel Street performs exceptionally at 2.8 per cent vacancy,” Ogg says.
“The improving landscape is supported by Te Pae convention centre, the reopened Court Theatre, Te Kaha Stadium, and the soon-to-open Parakiore Recreation and Sport Centre – a state-of-the-art facility that will be New Zealand's largest indoor aquatic and leisure centre.”
Prime industrial assets now trade at 5 to 5.5 per cent initial yields, with prime commercial at 5.5 to 6.25 per cent – meaningfully better than Auckland or Wellington for comparable risk profiles.
Recent transactions include 181 High Street CBD ($55 million, 6 per cent initial yield) and the Baigent Way industrial portfolio ($40.4 million, 6.32 per cent).
“Having presented critical market intelligence for 32 years, including more than 20 years to the PCNZ Market Summit, Colliers is seeing Christchurch at perhaps its most interesting inflection point since the rebuild phase,” Ogg says.
“What has emerged from the devastation is a genuinely unique proposition – a modern, planned city centre that's increasingly recognised globally as something special.”
- Supplied by Colliers
