The five things you need to know about the housing market this week.
1. The mini upturn may be about to falter
The Cotality Home Value Index showed a modest 0.1% rise in the nationwide median property value in April, the third consecutive monthly increase. Property values in Auckland and Wellington were sluggish in April, dropping by 0.1%, but Christchurch and Dunedin values were up by 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively.
Taking a step back, this means we’ve now seen a rise of 0.6% in the nationwide median property value over the last three months, which, while fairly modest, does represent a small shift in direction from the previous period. Of course, there are some other key forces now bearing down on this mini upturn, namely the knock-on effects of the Iran conflict, a weakening economy, and higher mortgage rates.
Start your property search
As such, don't be surprised if property values flatten again in the next few months or even start to decline. That would obviously be disappointing for some, such as those currently trying to sell a property. But it’s potentially good news for others – in particular, any would-be first home buyers who feel confident in their job security.
2. The labour market will be vital
One key factor in determining how property sales and values move in the coming months is the labour market. Last week’s Stats NZ figures showed a further 0.3% rise in filled jobs in March, which is a pretty decent result. Of course, the filled jobs data can be significantly revised, and more importantly, firms’ hiring intentions could be quickly paused in light of the Iran conflict.
In other words, it may only be a matter of time until the labour market upturn starts to peter out again. In that context, this week’s official unemployment figures from Stats NZ should be closely watched, although they do relate to Q1 and so again need to be seen as "a line in the sand" for what might come next.
Cotality chief economist Kelvin Davidson: "It may only be a matter of time until the labour market upturn starts to peter out again." Photo / Peter Meecham
3. Mortgage lending is just ticking along
Meanwhile, the latest data from the Reserve Bank showed $9.5 billion of new mortgage lending in March, around $1bn more than the same month in 2025 – a decent rise, but slower growth than we saw over the second half of last year. Most of the individual breakdowns of the figures were similar to recent months, but it’s worth keeping an eye on investors. The share of lending going to this group at high loan-to-value ratios (or low deposit) has edged up lately, and it was interesting to see more lending to them at high debt-to-income ratios in March as well.
4. Economic data is starting to look patchy
Just a quick round-up of some other key macro figures last week – dwelling consents were still solid enough in March (up 8% from a year ago), but ANZ’s measures of business and consumer confidence have fallen off the proverbial cliff. As ANZ pointed out in its commentary, one "good" aspect of the latest surveys was that wage-related measures are still pretty subdued, which could provide a bit of reassurance for the Reserve Bank that there's no second-round inflation - yet. Of course, households themselves may not be so chuffed with flat wages and/or falling employment.
5. Fixing for some insurance?
On Friday, the Reserve Bank will publish March’s loan data split by the terms chosen. Lately, there’s been a big shift away from floating/short-term fixed rates toward longer-term fixed loans, especially the two-year rate. It’ll be no surprise at all to see more of the same in the latest figures, as people look to get ‘insurance’ against even further rate rises.
- Kelvin Davidson is chief economist at property insights firm Cotality
